January 15, 2010

Congratulations for doing so well in 2009; now for 2010

-By Peter Francese

New Hampshire REALTORS® have every reason to be extremely proud that they not only survived 2009, but in fact sold more homes than in 2008. That was a huge achievement considering the near-record depth of the Great Recession.

During 2009, the bad news just kept coming. New Hampshire’s unemployment rate peaked at 7.2 percent in September – the highest it had been in almost 17 years. There were over 3,400 home foreclosures in 2009, almost as many as the nearly 3,600 in 2008. As if that were not enough, total statewide employment fell by over 15,000 jobs between November 2008 and November 2009.

But that was so last year. What about 2010? Well, the consensus of most economists is that the recovery from this extraordinary recession will get underway this year, although they also predict that the recovery will be slow and that it may take two years for our state to get back to some semblance of normal, whatever that is.

Considering how well home sales went when the recession was in full swing, there is no reason why this year should not be one of recovery. The state unemployment rate is below 7 percent (compared to the 10 percent nationally) and dropping. And new unemployment claims are also falling.

But as we know now, traditional employment is only one indicator of housing demand in New Hampshire. In addition to over 625,000 people with jobs, we also have in excess of 100,000 more who are self-employed. They normally can’t collect an unemployment check, so they are not included in the labor stats. But they’re a critical part of the New Hampshire economy and will play a key role in this recovery.

And let’s not forget the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s index of state economic activity, which has been rising in New Hampshire since last September. It’s now over 193, still fourth highest in the nation and well above the 154 average for the other New England states.

Another New Hampshire advantage is that we have much healthier local banks than other states. None have been closed by the FDIC, and none are even on their watch list. That’s way better than in the early 1990s and bodes well for home sales in 2010.

All signs point to a reasonably robust recovery this year and next. But our state still has, shall we say, “issues.” We are now the fourth oldest state in terms of median age, and aging too rapidly for us to be complacent about future labor force growth.

One often overlooked aspect of the New Hampshire, however, is our residents’ very high level of educational attainment. Our state is among the nation’s top 10 in the percent of adults with a bachelor’s or graduate degree. Which of course explains why we are also in the top 10 in terms of median household and family income.

Well-educated workers are far more likely to work after age 65. New Hampshire’s Baby Boomers, who will be turning 65 at the rate of approximately 20,000 a year over this decade, are likely to follow that pattern, and many will continue working. That will do a lot to boost future economic growth, as well as second home sales.

Table I below shows that home sales grew in nine of our 10 counties between 2008 and 2009, but that sale price was lower in all 10. Median sale price did rise slightly statewide between November and December, and increased 10 percent for the nearly 2,400 sales in Rockingham County.

Condominium sales, however, did not increase year-over-year statewide, and their sale price was lower almost everywhere. Statewide residential median sale prices were only about 28 percent higher than condo median sale prices, and in three counties condominiums prices were actually higher. This suggests that the recovery in residential sale prices is likely to occur faster than that for condominiums.

Congratulations again for 2009, and may 2010 be even better.

Table I: Residential home sales for 2009 compared to 2008

Table 2: Condominium sales for 2009 compared to 2008

Source: Northern New England Real Estate Network